Bitcoin is trying to recover after losing channel support, but analysts remain split on what the breakdown means. One chart points to a possible short-term bounce before deeper downside, while another questions whether the current structure is really a bear flag. Bitcoin Bounce May Be Short-Lived as Analysts Watch for Deeper Drop Toward $39K Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a key decision point after a sharp decline pushed price into major support. While a relief rally remains possible, analysts warn that any recovery could be corrective and part of a broader bearish structure. Bitcoin Daily Chart (BTC/USD). Source: More Crypto Online on X / TradingView The chart shows Bitcoin completing a decline labeled as wave (1), with analyst More Crypto Online monitoring a potential wave (2) bounce. According to the Elliott Wave count, such a move would likely be a temporary recovery before another leg lower develops. The analysis highlights a potential rebound zone between roughly $67,000 and $77,000. Several Fibonacci retracement levels are clustered in this area, including the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6% retracement levels, which often act as resistance during corrective rallies. Despite the possibility of a bounce, the broader outlook remains bearish. The chart projects a larger wave (3) decline that could eventually target the $39,000 to $23,000 region, identified as a major support zone from previous market cycles. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below a declining trendline that has capped price throughout the recent correction. As long as BTC stays below that resistance structure, the chart continues to favor a corrective rebound rather than a full trend reversal. For now, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can stage a recovery toward the highlighted Fibonacci resistance zone. A bounce may relieve short-term selling pressure, but the current Elliott Wave structure still points to the risk of additional downside afterward. Bitcoin Breaks Below Channel Support, but Analyst Questions Bear Flag Narrative Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below a rising channel support that many traders viewed as a potential bear flag. However, analyst SuperBro argues the current structure differs from previous bear flag breakdowns that led to immediate and aggressive selloffs. Bitcoin Weekly Chart (BTC/USD). Source: SuperBro on X / TradingView The chart compares Bitcoin's current price action with a similar setup from the 2022 bear market. During that period, BTC formed a rising channel after a sharp decline. Once support broke, price quickly accelerated lower and triggered another major leg down. In the current cycle, Bitcoin also traded inside an upward-sloping channel following a strong selloff from its highs. Price recently slipped below channel support and dropped toward the $63,000 region, creating a pattern that visually resembles the 2022 setup. However, the analyst notes a key difference. Previous bear flag breakdowns produced immediate downside follow-through after support failed. This time, Bitcoin spent weeks consolidating and repeatedly rebounded after breaking lower, suggesting selling pressure has not been as aggressive as it was during the last bear market. The chart raises questions about whether the current structure should be classified as a traditional bear flag. While the breakdown occurred, the lack of a rapid continuation move has prevented the pattern from developing in the same way as earlier bearish setups. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below the former channel support, which keeps downside risks in place. At the same time, the slower pace of the decline suggests market participants are still debating whether the current move represents the start of a larger selloff or a broader consolidation phase. For now, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim the broken channel or if sellers regain momentum and push price below recent lows. The answer could determine whether this pattern follows the path of previous bear market breakdowns or develops into a different structure altogether.
