Polymarket is making a slow but deliberate move into one of the world’s most tightly controlled financial markets. According to Bloomberg , the prediction market platform is looking to enter the Japanese market with complete government approval by 2030 and has already appointed a representative in Japan. Mike Eidlin, who most recently served as Head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter, is reportedly leading the push. Japanese users are currently blocked from accessing Polymarket under the platform’s “regulatory requirements” policy and have been for years. Cracking the market means starting from zero in a country where the legal default is that you cannot wager value on uncertain outcomes. The four year timeline to seek approval however does suggest that this is going to be a long regulatory campaign in a country where there is no legal classification that fits prediction markets at this moment in time. Why Japan and Why Now Japan has a population of roughly 124 million, a deep retail trading culture and around 12 million registered crypto accounts as of last year according to the Financial Services Agency (FSA). This is exactly the type of space a prediction market platform would want control over. However, the obstacle facing Polymarket at the moment is that betting with any sort of value on uncertain outcomes falls under Article 185 of Japan’s Penal Code, which basically prohibits gambling outside of any government approved categories like horse racing or the lottery. This move also comes out at a time when the platform is making a strategic build out. The platform was last valued at $15 billion in April after Intercontinental Exchange wrapped up its investment and is currently in talks for another $400 million round. On the other side of the fence, Kalshi, Polymarket’s biggest competitor, is making serious moves in toppling the market share dominance in its favour. Polymarket’s trading volume on its offshore exchange and US app slipped 9% to $10.3 billion in April. This was the first decline in eight months. Meanwhile, Kalshi hit $14.8 billion over the same period. The 2030 Timeline Is Realistic, Just Barely Japan’s regulatory machinery moves at its own pace. The FSA is in the middle of a multi-year overhaul that reclassifies certain crypto assets from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, with the implementing bill expected this year and spot crypto ETFs planned by 2028. Prediction markets aren’t even on the agenda. Under current Japanese law, event contracts could eventually fall into one of three classifications: illegal gambling under Article 185 of the Penal Code, a regulated financial product under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, or a “points and data” product that mimics forecasting without direct cash betting, similar to how pachinko operates through indirect prize exchange. Each path leads to a very different version of what Polymarket would be allowed to offer. There is also competition forming at home. Tokyo gaming giant Gumi, working with Gc Labs, announced its own AI and blockchain-based prediction market in October 2025 with a “fair, transparent, and compliant” framing. POYP runs a points-only model that deliberately sidesteps the gambling law in the same way pachinko’s prize-exchange system does. Both signal that domestic players are already prototyping a Japan-shaped version of this product. What This Says About Polymarket The bigger story isn’t Japan specifically, it’s that Polymarket is now willing to spend years inside regulatory rooms instead of routing around them. The CFTC pathway in the US, the ICE partnership, the Nasdaq Private Market data deal for startup valuation markets, and now Japan all point in the same direction. Polymarket is preparing to be regulated rather than tolerated. Whether Japan rewards that patience by 2030 is a separate question. The willingness to wait that long is the actual news. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .
