Summary Bakkt, Inc. is a speculative, high-risk play with a deeply discounted 0.05 P/S ratio, reflecting market skepticism about its profitability and sustainability. BKKT has exited unprofitable segments, focusing on B2B digital asset infrastructure, but remains unprofitable with a 2025 operating loss of $132.2 million and a 1.15% gross margin. Shareholder dilution continues as BKKT raises capital to fund operations, with cash reserves covering only 12–15 months at current burn rates. Investment thesis hinges on BKKT achieving positive EBITDA, higher-margin recurring B2B revenues, and operational stability before warranting serious long-term consideration. Introduction My view on the company is that it's a speculative company with a high risk. The cheap valuation that this company has alone is not enough; investors need to wait and see clear signs of a positive EBITDA, strong recurring revenues, and a stable balance structure before considering the company as a more serious long-term choice. Bakkt, Inc. ( BKKT ) operates as an institutional digital asset infrastructure company and finished an essential strategic turn after selling the Loyalty segment and winding down Bakkt Trust in 2025. The company's main focus now is on the B2B model, including the execution of trades, storage, and stablecoin payment technologies. 2025 fiscal year results show $2.34 billion in revenues, which was 32% lower than in 2024, though this number is misleading due to the specifics of accounting for gross cryptocurrency transactions, in which revenue depends on asset price fluctuations rather than the net value of services. Operating loss in 2025 reached $132.2 million, highlighting the inability to reach operating efficiency even after aggressive cost-lowering programs. The P/S ratio is just 0.05, which reflects the market's skepticism due to the low service margins and constant need for capital. In 2026, the company raised $48.1 million through a direct share offering, increasing its cash reserve to around $88 million, though it also means a further shareholder dilution when the EPS remains negative and is reaching -$4.20. The strategic turn to stablecoin infrastructure through planned Distributed Technologies Research acquisition shows an attempt to diversify revenues, though for now the company remains unprofitable. The current valuation shows that investors are not pricing in any growth potential, and the company’s survival remains directly dependent on institutional cryptocurrency adaptation and the ability to control operational expenses without additional share issuances. Business overview Bakkt, Inc. has completely withdrawn from retail sales and loyalty program segments; the last one was sold in October 2025, trying to eliminate the unprofitable segments and make the operational structure simpler. The current product portfolio is concentrated on three main platforms: Bakkt Markets, Bakkt Agent, and Bakkt Global, which are oriented to institutional trading, stablecoin infrastructure, and artificial intelligence-based financial solutions. 2025 results indicate that revenues reached $2.3 billion, though this is 32% lower than in 2024, which was due to the drop in volumes of cryptocurrencies and the loss of a few main clients. Even though revenues remain very high, the net income was just $26.9 million, which suggests a very low gross margin of 1.15%. This rotation to net infrastructure has not yet paid off in terms of profitability, because in 2025, the net loss from continuing operations reached $97.7 million. The 2026 announced Distributed Technologies Research acquisition shows a strategic turn to stablecoin payments, though the 31.5% share emission for this deal will dilute shareholders. The market valuation remains skeptical; P/S is around 0.05, which is way lower than the sector’s average and reflects the risk tied to the inability to convert high turnover into sustainable operating profit. Valuation Bakkt, Inc. is currently only valued at a 0.05 P/S multiplier, which is very low compared to the sector's leaders, Coinbase Global, Inc. ( COIN ) and Robinhood Markets, Inc. ( HOOD ), which are valued at around 7.6x and 6.4x. Such a drastic gap is not a buying signal but rather a market's indication of poor revenue quality. A big part of the company's revenues is generated from cryptocurrency trading services, in which gross margin in 2025 reached just 1.15%, compared to Coinbase, whose margins historically are over 80%. This suggests that Bakkt turnover is nominal and doesn’t translate into operating profit. The company’s price-to-book ratio is reaching 2.08, which shows that the market values its assets more realistically than revenues, though investors remain cautious due to the $97.3 million in net losses that were incurred in 2025. Even though the new management after the 2025 restructuring got rid of long-term debt and acquired around $100 million in capital, the $48 million cash reserve at the start of 2026, at the current rate of burning funds, doesn't provide long-term safety. The valuation directly correlates with a 14.18% short interest rate, showing that the market doubts B2B infrastructure models' ability to generate positive EBITDA in the near future. Risks The main Bakkt risk in 2026 remains the critical lack of liquidity and the constant operating losses, which directly create risk for the company's survival in the long term. Even though in 2025 the company's revenues were $2.34 billion, the company ended up with a net loss of $97 million, which shows its inability to convert high turnover into a positive cash flow. The available $48 million in cash reserves with the current rate of burning funds, the reserve will last only for the upcoming 12-15 months of operating. This creates a risk with the constant need for additional capital, which directly affects shareholder equity dilution through new share issuance, similar to what happened in 2024, when it completed a 1-for-25 share merger. The business model's dependency on cryptocurrency trading volumes is another risk, because the 1.15% margin doesn't leave any room for errors or any market drop. Any decrease in trading activity of 20% or more could lead to a sharp increase in the operating deficit because the fixed infrastructure maintenance expenses remain high. Furthermore, the regulatory environment in the US remains strict, and SEC requirements for cryptocurrency custody services increase compliance costs, which in 2025 made up around 15% of the whole operational expenses. If the company doesn't manage to reach a positive EBITDA until the end of 2026, there remains a real doubt about the continuity of operations, which was already expressed by the audit in earlier periods. A high 14.18% short interest rate shows that institutional investors are actively betting against the company's ability to stabilise finances. Such a financial condition makes the stock very sensitive to any macroeconomic shocks or changes in interest rates, which could even further make borrowing more expensive and limit expansion opportunities in the B2B segment. Thesis summary Bakkt, Inc. is now transitioning as a company, moving from the earlier, less effective operations and trying to focus on the institutional cryptocurrency infrastructure segment, trade execution, custody, and stablecoin payment technologies. The current valuation in the market remains very low because investors are skeptically valuing the company's ability to turn high turnover into sustainable profitability. A positive side of things for the company is that it has already simplified its structure, abandoned some inefficient activities, and is trying to grow faster in emerging digital asset infrastructure segments. If the management could increase the higher-margin B2B services part of the portfolio, stabilise the client base, and lower operational losses, the current valuation could improve. The most important aspect in the upcoming earnings is not the revenue, but rather its quality. The market wants to see improved service margins, lower operational losses, positive or improving EBITDA, and a slower burn of cash, as well as growing, recurring B2B revenues. Furthermore, it is significant that the new stablecoin and infrastructure initiatives start to generate real commercial contracts, rather than just strategic promises. My view on the company is that it's a speculative company with a high risk. The cheap valuation that this company has alone is not enough; investors need to wait and see clear signs of a positive EBITDA, strong recurring revenues, and a stable balance structure before considering the company as a more serious long-term choice.
