Summary BMNR has declined 43% since last coverage, mirroring Ethereum and Bitcoin weakness during a broad crypto risk-off selloff. Bitmine holds 4.285 million ETH, representing 3.55% of total supply, targeting a long-term 5% ownership goal. Fully staking the treasury could generate $374 million annually at 2.81% yield, totaling $542–583 million pre-tax income. Proposed share authorization increase from 500 million to 50 billion introduces significant potential dilution risk. Stock valuation remains tightly correlated to ETH price, amplifying both downside volatility and upside leverage. Investment Thesis Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. ( BMNR ) is down 43% lower since my last coverage due to weakness in the broader crypto market. Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) is down, Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) is down, and the risk-on appetite for crypto has declined in general. However, since BMNR is essentially a leveraged play on ETH, the crypto sell-off has had a bigger impact on the company’s stock. The concern regarding further dilution of the company’s shares in order to fund further ETH purchases continues to weigh on the company’s stock. The long-term thesis remains the same, however with 4.28 million ETH available for staking, Bitmine will be able to make $550 million per annum by 2026. Data by YCharts ETH Treasury To Derive $542–583 Million Annual Pre-Tax Income By 2026 The factor driving Bitmine Immersion Technologies’ stock valuations up is the large accumulation of Ethereum with the Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN) staking infra. Now, Bitmine acts as a proxy for ETH as it holds a large % of the total global supply. As of February 2, 2026, Bitmine’s total ETH holdings reached 4,285,125 token and this holding is a 3.55% of the total Ethereum supply. The acquisition rate has been fast as Bitmine has secured over 70% of the target Alchemy of 5% in six months. The impact of this accumulation is coming from the transition from holding a static asset to deriving yield through MAVAN. MAVAN is a commercial staking subsidiary, launching in Q1-FY26. In my view, this infra shift Bitmine as the ETH treasury into a productive proxy instrument. Shareholder meeting Against Bitcoin mining, that needs continuous hardware expenditure and energy costs, ETH staking provides rewards by validating the network. When the treasury is fully staked, the annual staking revenue will hit ~ $374 million based on a Composite ETH Staking Rate (CESR) of 2.81%. In my view, Bitmine’s forward performance depends largely on this high-margin revenue. With a treasury capital allocation of $18.1 billion, Bitmine may have an expected yield between 2.8% and 3%. This results in an annual pre-tax income between $507 million and $543 million from the process of staking. Furthermore, Bitmine will also have cash reserves. Hence, the cash yield of 3.5% to 4% on a $1 billion cash position translates to an additional $35 million to $40 million annually. Thus, the total potential pre-tax income for Bitmine ranges between $542 million-$583 million. This reduces the need to sell the assets to generate funds for operation. Hence, the income generated from the process of staking is in the form of ETH, thereby increasing the total token count without the need for further CapEx. Shareholder meeting As the amount of ETH increases due to the rewards of staking, the prospect of more staking rewards increases, thereby fueling the growth of the treasury. I believe that the Alchemy of 5% acts as a guide to scale the model. By targeting to capture 5% of the total ETH supply, Bitmine can further solidify its market leader position in the staking space. As a matter of fact, Bitmine is the largest new money purchaser of ETH in the world. As Bitmine withdraws ETH from the market to stake it in MAVAN, the supply of ETH for trading purposes will decrease. Moreover, the investment in Beast Industries, where $200 million will be invested in the company of MrBeast, further adds another dimension to this asset. This is a moonshot with a call option, as this investment will connect Bitmine to a huge audience, as MrBeast is the number one content creator on YouTube with over 1 billion followers. The purpose of this investment would be to further diversify the stockholder base and increase market awareness of the Bitmine stock. I believe that this is a synergy play, where the financial infrastructure of Bitmine will fuel the consumer service of Beast Industries. The correlation between the BMNR stock and ETH price further increases the overall financial implications. A coefficient that will exist between the stock price, where the stock price will equal 0.015 times the ETH price, plus the accretion of ETH per share, means that as the treasury grows due to the rewards of staking and the market value of ETH increases, the market capitalization of the Bitmine stock will also increase. The ETH price of $62,500 will correlate to a BMNR stock price of $1,500. As a matter of fact, this direct linkage exists between the stock price of Bitmine and the price of ETH. Shareholder meeting 100x Share Authorization Amplifies ETH Volatility Into Per-Share Value Risk I believe that the direct risk to the outlook of Bitmine is the extreme asset concentration and the related dilution risk required to maintain it. Bitmine’s business model depends entirely on the market price and technical viability of a single asset class ( ETH ). The total crypto and cash holdings equal $10.7 billion, with the vast majority allocated to ETH. This concentration offers upside during bull markets, but it exposes Bitmine to downside that may directly impact the balance sheet and income statement. A recent sharp decline, where a 40% gain turned into a loss (a crypto winter) as ETH prices dropped from ~$3,000 to $2,300 in early 2026. Because Bitmine marks the asset to market, a decline in ETH prices results in a reduction in book value immediately. Further, the revenue projections for MAVAN are denominated in dollars but derived from ETH rewards. So, if the price of ETH falls, the $374 million projected revenue may contract proportionally. The fixed costs of operating the MAVAN infrastructure and corporate overhead remain constant. A stable period of low asset prices compresses margins and creates stress in financials. Shareholder meeting In order to fund aggressive accumulation of ETH, Bitmine makes use of significant equity dilution. A recent proposal wants to make changes to the Certificate of Incorporation, raising the number of authorized shares from 500 million to 50 billion. This is a 100-fold increase in the number of shares that can be issued. This is done in order to allow Bitmine to engage in capital markets activities such as ATM offerings, convertibles, and warrants. This authorization may indicate that the main mechanism for acquiring the ETH treasury will be the sale of BMNR stock. This creates a race condition between the appreciation of the ETH asset and the dilution of equity. If Bitmine issues shares to buy ETH, but the price of ETH remains stagnant/falls, the value per share dilutes. The Alchemy of 5% objective needs obtaining ~6 million ETH. With current holdings at 4.285 million, Bitmine has to acquire an additional 1.7 million ETH. Funding this acquisition through at-the-market offerings may lead to a continuous supply of new stock hitting the market, and this selling may suppress the BMNR stock price. Data by YCharts Additionally, I believe that the operational risks of MAVAN introduce a single point of failure. MAVAN will be the largest commercial validator, and this scale concentrates technical risk. If the MAVAN infrastructure hits a slashing event, the network penalizes validators for technical faults/downtime, and Bitmine may lose a portion of the principal treasury. Without a diversified portfolio, a technical failure here impacts Bitmine’s entire revenue. In my understanding, Bitmine’s forward performance is a leveraged bet on ETH price performance. The coefficient formula (0.015 * ETH) links the corporate valuation to the commodity price. If the supercycle fails to materialize, Bitmine lacks a secondary revenue. Also, the investment in Beast Industries is a minority stake and does not provide cash flow immediately to offset a decline in the core staking business. So, Bitmine’s model lacks stability against a downturn in the ETH. Takeaway BMNR is a leveraged bet on Ethereum with a built-in yield. The stock naturally followed the crypto downtrend but will have the capability to generate around $550 million in income via staking by 2026 due to its 4.28 million ETH reserves. If the price of ETH rises, the gains will compound much faster, high-risk yes, but asymmetric for long-term bulls.
