Bitcoin trades at $68,870 as of writing , down 1.8% in the last 24 hours and nearly 28% over the past 30 days. The decline places the asset firmly back in bear market territory after a 45% drop from its October peak. On-chain data now shows mounting stress, while institutional flows and macro signals add further pressure. On-Chain Metrics Signal Structural Weakness Bitcoin’s Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio, known as aSOPR, has dropped toward the 0.92–0.94 range. This metric tracks whether holders spend coins at a profit or a loss. When aSOPR falls below 1, investors realize losses. Historically, major cycle lows in 2019 and 2023 formed around the 0.92–0.93 zone. During those periods, investors capitulated and reset market structure. Now, aSOPR presses into that same region again. Source: CryptoQuant Unlike mid-cycle pullbacks where aSOPR quickly reclaims 1.0, the current move shows sustained weakness. Loss realization continues, and buyers have not regained control. If the metric fails to reclaim 1.0 soon, historical patterns suggest a broader bear phase could take hold rather than a short-term correction. Market data also shows that true bottoms form only after deeper compression and peak loss realization. Current readings indicate rising stress, though not yet extreme capitulation. $55K Realized Price Comes Into Focus CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin has not yet reached its bear market floor despite the steep correction. The firm identifies $55,000 as the realized price level, which represents the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin holders. Source: CryptoQuant via X In prior downturns, Bitcoin touched this realized price before entering a prolonged consolidation phase that lasted four to six months. The firm’s bull-bear cycle indicator currently shows a bear phase but not “extreme bear” conditions. That distinction matters because previous market bottoms formed only after extreme readings emerged. Standard Chartered echoes the cautious outlook. The bank projects a possible drop toward $50,000 before Bitcoin attempts any sustained recovery toward $100,000. Analysts at the bank describe the environment as part of a maturing asset cycle that reflects deeper integration with global markets. Institutional Flows Turn Negative Institutional activity also shifts. Over the last three days, BlackRock sold more than 7,000 BTC, valued at roughly $490 million. Fresh data shows the firm offloaded another $72.92 million worth of Bitcoin in the latest update. Such flows draw attention because BlackRock ranks as the world’s largest asset manager. While ETF inflows previously supported upward momentum, recent outflows highlight changing short-term positioning. Meanwhile, Coincodex monitors the Live Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance Chart as Bitcoin Dominance stands at 58.62%, with a market cap of $1.38 trillion against a total crypto market cap of $2.35 trillion. Dominance often rises during risk-off periods as capital rotates away from altcoins. Equity Markets Add Macro Risk Technical analysts now compare Bitcoin’s structure with broader equity trends. Historically, macro Bitcoin bottoms formed when the S&P 500 dropped at least 10–15% from its all-time high. Today, the S&P 500 trades near record levels while Bitcoin consolidates between $60,000 and $80,000. Source: TradingView via X Some analysts anticipate a retest of the S&P 500’s previous high near 6,200. If equities correct from that zone, Bitcoin could follow with a sharper decline toward the $48,000–$35,000 range. Risk assets often move together during periods of market stress. For now, Bitcoin navigates a bear environment. On-chain stress builds, institutional flows shift, and macro correlations strengthen. The next decisive move may depend on whether realized losses deepen and whether broader financial markets turn lower.
