Summary Bitgo Holdings recently completed its IPO, entering the public markets amid heightened investor interest in digital asset infrastructure. BTGO is well positioned for tokenization as a regulated custodian, serving institutional clients and benefiting from increasing demand for secure crypto asset storage. BTGO's revenue model leverages transaction fees and asset-based charges, providing scalability as institutional adoption of digital assets accelerates. It has been just two weeks since Bitgo Holdings ( BTGO ) had its IPO in late January, and the stock has already been on a wild ride. After raising $213 million at $18 per share and a fully diluted valuation of $2.1 billion, shareholders of BTGO haven't had much to be excited about as the stock has fallen in sympathy with the broader cryptocurrency market. Data by YCharts Down nearly 45% from the company's IPO price in just 10 sessions amid the market carnage, is it time to take a shot on BTGO shares? In this coverage initiation article, I'll get into what Bitgo does and the estimated financials of the business through the end of 2025. Bitgo: A Brief Intro Headquartered in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, Bitgo aims to reduce the fragmentation in the digital assets financial services industry by providing an all-in-one platform for institutional and high-net-worth individuals. Bitgo Among other things, Bitgo offers clients self-custodial wallets, managed wallets, staking & restaking, stablecoin services, lending, settlement, token trading, wealth management, and asset custody. The company cites $104 billion in platform assets, nearly 5,000 clients, and over 1,550 tradable assets. Bitgo was co-founded by acting CEO Mike Belshe in 2011 and is the custodian for the Wrapped Bitcoin ( WBTC-USD ) token on Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) as well as the World Liberty Financial (WLFI-USD) stablecoin USD1. The company is leaning into real-world asset tokenization (or RWA) and sees the tokenization theme as a multi-trillion dollar opportunity. Tokenization is a digital asset narrative that I've explored through Seeking Alpha work dating back to at least as early as 2023 . Tokenization sounds compelling, from where I sit. However, I think it will be an uphill climb due to all of the existing financial market infrastructure that would be at risk of disruption in a fully tokenized market. Should tokenization efforts progress broadly, Bitgo could be well positioned, given its standing with regulators. Bitgo has a history of making efforts toward regulatory compliance. Most recently, the company announced that it is the first public digital asset infrastructure company that is federally chartered. This potentially reduces the regulatory risk for BTGO that might be often associated with other crypto-related businesses. Market competitors for Bitgo include but are not limited to Coinbase Custody ( COIN ), Bullish ( BLSH ), Anchorage Digital, and Fidelity Digital Assets. Latest Financials While the company hasn't yet released financials for the final three months of 2025, Bitgo did provide estimated revenue and expenses for 2025 with a high and low range estimation. In the tables below, I'm taking the average of the estimates for the columns labeled 'estimated 2025. The good news is Bitgo had explosive growth last year. Revenue (000s) Estimated 2025 2024 YoY Digital assets sales revenue $15,498,993 $2,543,019 509.5% Staking revenue $376,844 $459,573 -18.0% Subscriptions and services revenue $117,649 $77,443 51.9% Stablecoin-as-a-Service revenue $65,062 $0 Interest Income $1,481 $932 58.9% Total Revenue $16,060,028 $3,080,967 421.3% Source: Bitgo filing With digital asset sales revenue of $15.5 billion estimated, Bitgo grew category revenue by 510% and total revenue by over 421%. This is terrific growth, to say the least, and is largely organic, as far as I can tell, rather than through mergers and acquisitions. This is perhaps not surprising considering Bitgo caters to a more institutional, compliant clientele than what would likely be expected from the more retail-focused cryptocurrency exchanges. Though it should be noted that staking revenue was down by 18%. Expenses (000s) Estimated 2025 2024 YoY Digital asset sales cost $15,464,376 $2,531,063 511.0% Staking fees $337,388 $419,286 -19.5% Stablecoin sponsor fees $62,393 $0 Interest expense $10,748 $1,630 559.4% Compensation and benefits $101,973 $79,939 27.6% General and administrative expenses $76,039 $52,817 44.0% Amortization and depreciation $3,773 $3,216 17.3% Total expenses $16,056,689 $3,087,951 420.0% Income (loss) from operations $3,339 -$6,984 -147.8% Source: Bitgo filing Estimated 2025 expenses were up roughly in line with top-line revenue at 420% year over year, with the largest increase coming from the digital asset sales segment. Interest expense was actually the largest YoY spike by percentage. The biggest win, perhaps, is the positive expected net income of $3.3 million during the calendar year. This shows another year of positive change in the company's operating history. Bitgo Annual Performance ( Bitgo ) In 2022, Bitgo lost over $74 million dollars. The company was able to reduce that net loss from operations dramatically in each of the subsequent years. While the shift to profitability is terrific, I do see some potential concerns that prospective shareholders should be aware of. First, Bitgo's take rate on digital asset sales was 0.22% in 2025. That was down more than 50% from 2024. Take Rate Estimated 2025 2024 YoY Digital Asset Sales 0.22% 0.47% -52.5% Staking Business 10.47% 8.77% 19.4% Source: Bitgo filing While it certainly seems that the company has found a nice profit-driving fit in its staking business, Bitgo will have to find a way to walk the fine line between extracting value from staking asset services while minimizing any client churn. It's important to keep in mind that staking can be done directly on-chain by the asset owners in many cases. And as digital asset custody businesses mature, it stands to reason that custody fees could potentially see a race to the bottom. So far, churn doesn't appear to be a concern: Performance Metrics ( Bitgo ) While assets on the platform and assets staked have declined over the last 12 months, number of users and the number of clients have both increased. This would seem to imply that asset values have been the larger detriment to the decline in AoP than clients pulling funds. Regardless, these are important metrics to keep in mind when the company eventually provides its annual report. Key Risk: Crypto Winter As I see it, the biggest risk to Bitgo Holdings, aside from competition, is loss of investor interest in the asset class itself. Sentiment in the market is admittedly horrific. There was never a true 'altcoin season' in this cycle the way the market provided in prior cycles. Thus, I suspect that could discourage long-term investment in the asset class broadly, as it could be argued that the easy money party is over in the industry. In my opinion, the digital asset industry needs to get serious about building something that is actually useful in the real world. Outside of a handful of interesting opportunities, I still don't quite see it yet. 90 Day Performance (CoinMarketCap) Furthermore, of the only eight 'top 100' tokens that have a positive performance over the last 90 days, two of them are gold-backed, and one of the other ones is an asset that powers a Tradi-Fi-funded smart contract chain that figures to challenge essentially every single 'decentralized' L1 in the market today. That asset is vying for the exact market that Bitgo is prioritizing currently. This is a major headwind, in my view, and should absolutely be taken into consideration by investors in Ethereum ( ETH-USD ), Solana ( SOL-USD ), and stablecoin issuers like Circle Internet Group ( CRCL ). If you're unsure of what I'm referring to, I highly recommend reading Thomas Carroll's recent piece on the Canton Network ( CC-USD ). Closing Summary There are things I like about Bitgo and things I don't like about it. While I think it's great that the company appears to have generated a positive net income in 2025 for the first time in at least 3 years, the take rate on Bitgo's largest business was more than cut in half from 2024 to 2025. Though user growth is good, AoP was down year over year. And I say all of this before again mentioning the elephant in the room: Bitgo is a crypto pure play while the sector is entering 'crypto winter.' I don't see a clear reason to expect that the company won't survive crypto winter, but Bitgo is vying for a tokenization market that is going to be extremely competitive. The history of regulatory compliance is a strong signal, and being federally chartered is terrific, but there are no guarantees of success based on those facts alone. I don't hate the idea of a speculative long in BTGO. But I want to see lower prices first.
