The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% today in what would be its third straight pause of the year. Kalshi bettors see Powell more likely to resign later, with 66% odds by August and 81% by year-end, while Polymarket sees an 87% chance he leaves between May 15 and May 22. Kevin Warsh’s nomination has moved forward, and Powell could face questions at 18:00 UTC about whether he is actually leaving the Fed or not.
