Summary Robinhood (HOOD) is rated a Buy, presenting a world-class entry point after trading 55% below its all-time high. HOOD exhibits elite growth: FY25 revenue up 52%, adjusted EBITDA up 76%, and margin expansion of 8 percentage points. Platform assets surged 68% year-over-year, with robust growth in ARPU (+16%), Gold subscribers (+58%), and retirement AUC (+102%). Despite being fundamentally diversified, HOOD trades as a speculative, crypto-adjacent sentiment asset, with crypto comprising 20% of 2025 revenue. Robinhood ( HOOD ) stock is down by -25% since my last analysis , in which I issued a Hold rating on the company. However, now there's evidence that we could be set up at world-class entry point. I admit that the equity is valued speculatively, but I'm willing to overlook that on the premise that HOOD stock looks to track Bitcoin ( BTC ) broadly, as well as software. Therefore, once the crypto winter ends, I see it as quite logical that sentiment for HOOD stock will begin to rise. It's not a value investment, but it does have decent growth and is trading down from its prior highs significantly. To be specific, Hood is 55% below its all-time high. I rate the stock a Buy . Business Fundamentals Robinhood's growth positioning is elite, even if the fundamental value isn't. FY25 revenue grew 52%, adjusted EBITDA grew 76%, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 8 percentage points. 11 of the company's businesses were already above a $100M annualized run-rate by the end of 2025. Furthermore, platform assets in FY25 were up by about 67% year-over-year (not all organic), with last- twelve -month net deposits compounding at about a 35% rate relative to the prior asset base. Moreover, Q4 ARPU increased by 16%, Gold subscribers grew by 58%, and retirement AUC grew 102%. This is fundamentally well-diversified business that is growing across several fronts. Robinhood stock trades with crypto because the market still sees it as a liquid crypto-adjacent risk-appetite proxy. Crypto was about 20% of Robinhood's 2025 revenue, and its crypto market share rose 63% year-over-year. Unfortunately, unlike a Bitcoin treasury like Strategy ( MSTR ), or direct crypto, Robinhood stock is currently trading like a speculative sentiment asset even though it has a reliable and diversified operating business. Valuation Most readers are not going to like this valuation strategy, but I'm going to do it anyway because you have to break a few traditions to beat the herd who can't live without them. Even though HOOD has an SA Quant " Sell " rating, and a Quant valuation grade of D-, I'm bullish on the technicals. I know, I know, that's not a reliable long-term strategy for fundamentalists. But it has its place in a portfolio geared toward convexity and portfolio insurance in other vectors. For example, with 37% in cash and cash equivalents, even if a recession occurred now, which I don't think it will, I'd be well-off in the downturn to deploy into value. I can afford to own some high-convexity "speculative" positions like HOOD. The weekly RSI has just closed-in on essentially oversold. The price action of HOOD has also mimicked BTC broadly. And the business, though fundamentally "overvalued, " is growing well, popular with customers, and has a reliable long-term trajectory. To me, these are the simple ingredients of a strong trade. I see it as very likely that HOOD will rise when BTC rises. It's that simple. Robinhood One-Week-Intervals Price Chart (Author's Chart) We can argue all we want about the "more technical aspects, " the " balance sheet, " the " intrinsic discounted value of future cash flows, " and all other parameters, which I already understand. It won't make you any more cash! Instead, I come back to basics. Relative value, RSIs, growth trajectory, and then if I want to be conservative, I look for a margin of safety. HOOD is not conservative. HOOD/BTC One-Week-Intervals Price Chart (Author's Chart) If the company delivers $3 in normalized EPS in December 2027, then the stock price will likely be $105 in December 2026 if the forward P/E is 35, up only marginally from the present 31.5. In other words, as the stock is now $69, a +52% return. Risks The HOOD = BTC proxy narrative is less clean that it sounds on paper in reality. Crypto was 20% of FY25 revenue , and management still maintains that the business is diversifying across many lines. If diversification keeps working, HOOD may stop giving the clean one-for-one BTC beta this thesis is relying on, but I still thinks it's valid for now. Right now, the revenue model is still cyclical and concentrated, with PFOF economics. 59% of FY25 revenue was transaction-based, and 55% of total net revenue consisted of transaction-based revenues paid by market makers and exchanges. Citadel alone represented 13% of net revenue. This creates volatility risks in the price and makes a low entry point, like now, more opportune. Finally, management guided 2026 adjusted opex and SBC to $2.6B-$2.7B, up 18% at the midpoint, with more than half of that growth going into new and scaling businesses. If adoption lags, the multiple can compress before the revenue shows up and cap the upside thesis presented here. Conclusion: Buy Is HOOD one of the best stocks on the market? No, not in my opinion. But is it one of the best entry points right now for somewhat speculative returns that are not heavy on margin of safety but high on technical positive probability outcome? Yes. Or to be more blunt, HOOD mimics crypto, and crypto winter is over soon and we'll be heading into spring. Some people might not like the stock, and that's fine. You stick to your discounted cash flows and your advanced technical analysis, that's fine. If it works for you, it works for you. This is what works for me. We're all entitled to our own views and strategies. And I've been hitting 50-60% annual returns recently, so I'm not planning on changing course any time soon. Onwards and upwards. On a closing and more positive note, I'm fond of HOOD's management. After watching several interviews with the CEO, I'm convinced that the business is in good hands. Robinhood isn't my main broker, but I do use it for one portfolio, and you guessed it, it's the one most heavily oriented to crypto. In fact, it's a crypto treasury portfolio. HOOD does the job well. The company's financial statements and forward growth look strong, and the technicals on the stock price right now look primed for a world-class entry point.
