Summary Bitcoin has corrected sharply from its October 2025 all-time high, driven by profit-taking, risk-off sentiment, and substantial forced liquidations. Forced liquidations have distorted BTC's price discovery, but their moderation suggests the worst of the sell-off may be over. Sustained price levels above $60,000 are key; a drop below could delay recovery, though a short squeeze is possible as shorts become riskier. I continue accumulating BTC, expecting a sustainable rebound and new all-time highs in 2026 barring a black swan event. After confirmation Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) hit an all‑time high in October 2025, it has expectedly pulled back as some investors took profits. That wasn't the only negative catalyst for Bitcoin, though, as other factors like a decline in risk appetite, a drop in liquidity, and an increase in forced liquidations have combined for the flagship crypto to drop, at its low, approximately 50% from its all-time high. This, of course, brought out the Bitcoin bears, along with the bashers, who have attempted to pile on Bitcoin, as has happened during Bitcoin corrections during the lifetime of the asset. The initial correction of Bitcoin wasn't unexpected, and investors with information on price discovery at the top of the cycle. After the price plummeted to the mid-$80,000 range, it was at that time I thought we would start to see a recovery. I wasn't taking into account the amount of margin held by those holding Bitcoin for the long term, and when forced liquidations started to escalate, it resulted in the second wave of price drops, resulting in the price dropping to close to $60,000 on some exchanges. In this article, we'll look at why I think the price of Bitcoin is probably close to a bottom and what to expect over the next year or so. Bitcoin and Short-term Price Discovery Price discovery for Bitcoin, especially in the short term, is difficult to ascertain because of the volatility of the asset and, as already mentioned, the impact of those using margin to accelerate the potential growth in profits. When the trade goes against them, it of course results in the steep correction we've seen since October 2025. The major problem in regard to price discovery is that forced liquidations skew the price of Bitcoin, as they have done recently with forced liquidations associated with silver, which recently and quickly dropped over 40%. Just like the price of silver doesn't reflect the price after forced liquidations, neither does the price of Bitcoin. While there could be some modest decline in the price of Bitcoin going forward because of the fear trade, it appears the bulk of the forced liquidations are behind us, and for that reason I see the worst being over. The other factor is the shorts. Many have made a nice profit on the recent decline, but the further down in price Bitcoin has gone, the riskier shorting it has become. As the price levels out, we'll probably see a short squeeze sometime in the near future, which will catch some off guard because they think the price of Bitcoin will continue to fall under current economic and market conditions, along with the fear trade possibly having more room to run. The key price metric for me is around $60k per Bitcoin. If the price were to fall below that level on a sustainable basis, it would suggest it could take longer for the price level to recover. The reason I consider $60k a key level is that it held even after the forced liquidation. If it were to fall below that, it would suggest there is something outside forced liquidations that are having an impact on the price. With forced liquidations slowing down, that would point to the fear trade driving a further decline. Why Bitcoin Holding $60k is Important After a couple of significant liquidation events and Bitcoin being able to hold $60,000 during that time, I see it as significant for it to hold $60k. If it doesn't, it could possibly fall to the low $50k mark before finding a bottom. Holding $60k, consequently, is a key psychological level. Breaking under that would likely trigger another selloff, even if it isn't associated with longs being liquidated. I don't see it dropping as steep as during liquidations, as it would likely move in alignment with a normal correction. That said, it depends upon if a large number of new longs are in play. Investors who think $60k was the bottom would be pressured to sell if Bitcoin has more to drop. It would also depend upon the speed and depth of the drop. Assuming Bitcoin holds 60k, it would continue to be supportive of ETF Bitcoin inflows. That's significant because ETFs have been the prime buyers of Bitcoin in the recent past. If that were to collapse, it would result in further downward pressure on Bitcoin. This would also be true in regard to other institutional buyers. That doesn't mean they won't get back into the market, only that it could cause the price of Bitcoin to further drop, potentially, for a longer period of time than many investors think it will. At the macrostructural level, it's also important for Bitcoin to hold $60k because if it erodes, it may result in the structure perceived to be at risk. That would cause investors to rethink their short-term outlook for Bitcoin, again, possibly resulting in a selloff. It would test many in regard to their confidence in the current market conditions. Fund Outflows and Inflows For the week ending February 6 , Bitcoin had outflows of $264 million. Major altcoins XRP, Solana, and Ethereum, on the other hand, enjoyed inflows of $64.1 million, $8.2 million, and $5.3 million during the same time period. Outside the U.S., inflows from Germany, Switzerland, Canada, and Brazil came in at $87.1M, $30.1M, $21.4M, and $16.7M. For all of 2026, Bitcoin ETFs have had outflows of $1.9 billion, while crypto ETPs have had a total outflow of $1.2 billion in the same period. I think the outflows in relation to Bitcoin reflect oversold conditions, and I expect that to reverse in the not-too-distant future, primarily because the forced liquidations are starting to wind down. Recent BTC Forced Liquidations Forced liquidations for BTC have soared in the latter part of January and early February, with forced liquidations of roughly $735 million on January 30 and a high of about $1.01 billion on February 4, 2026, according to Coinglass. In November 2025 we saw how forced liquidations brought above a steep decline after the normal Bitcoin correction, with about $552 million in forced liquidations on November 13, 2025, and on November 20, 2025, forced liquidations of approximately $790 million. Both time periods of hefty forced BTC liquidations caused the price of Bitcoin to plummet. Coinglass The major reason for focusing on forced liquidations is the price of Bitcoin isn't reflected in the price after liquidations. At the time of this writing, we're still waiting for a reset of price discovery, and we won't know until confirmation of a bottom is in. I think we're close to it, but in this risk-off period of time, you never know what will happen when investors start to panic sell if something triggers an emotional response. While forced liquidations are continuing, the number of them has moderated significantly, likely pointing to being near the end of that as a factor in Bitcoin's price performance. That said, there will probably be a new set of longs taking positions because of the collapse in price, which should look like a great price point for them. They are probably correct in that thinking, but under the current fear trade, things can surprise to the downside on any perceived significant news associated with the crypto sector. Conclusion I believe the worst is behind us in regard to Bitcoin, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was one more downward move before we find a bottom. It doesn't appear to me that it will happen that way, but there's a high enough chance it could happen that it wouldn't surprise me. I'm still accumulating during the downturn and will continue to add Bitcoin and/or Bitcoin-related holdings to my portfolio. It's somewhat amusing to see many of the same negative narratives surrounding Bitcoin when the price corrects and the associated forced liquidations give the appearance of a price collapse when it's based primarily upon Bitcoin longs that took far more risk than they should have, which dropped the price of Bitcoin lower than it should have. For me, I think the Bitcoin correction brought it between $80,000 and $90,000. Anything lower than that I see coming from forced liquidations which are righting themselves as they continue to drop in number. Under the current fears in the market, as mentioned above, it wouldn't surprise me to see one more significant downward move in price, by which I mean falling somewhere between $50,000 to $60,000 per Bitcoin. But with the flushing out of the longs from the market, even if that were to happen, I don't see it lasting long. On the other hand, if Bitcoin is able to hold above $60,000, I think Bitcoin will have a prolonged and sustainable boost in price, which will ultimately, over time, result in a new all-time high. Barring some black swan, I believe we'll see that happen in 2026.
