Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to push above critical demand levels today as traders position ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, a key event that could influence market direction for the weeks ahead. The market remains cautious but tense, with volatility expected to spike once the Fed reveals its stance on interest rates and quantitative tightening (QT). A dovish signal could ignite renewed buying momentum across risk assets, while a reaffirmation of restrictive policy might extend the current consolidation phase. According to fresh on-chain data from CryptoQuant, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have been actively selling throughout the past month—a trend that points to an ongoing distribution phase in Bitcoin’s cycle. Over the last 30 days, these seasoned investors have offloaded significant amounts of BTC, signaling profit-taking behavior after months of accumulation earlier in the year. While short-term traders watch for a potential breakout, the sustained selling pressure from long-term holders introduces a layer of caution. Still, analysts note that such distribution patterns often occur during mid-cycle transitions, when capital rotates from patient holders to new participants. How Bitcoin reacts to today’s Fed announcement may determine whether this phase evolves into renewed strength or deeper consolidation. Bitcoin Prepares For Volatility According to data shared by top analyst Maartunn, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have offloaded approximately 325,600 BTC over the past 30 days—the sharpest monthly drawdown since July 2025. This wave of distribution marks a significant shift in market dynamics, suggesting that even the most patient investors are realizing profits or repositioning amid growing macro uncertainty. Historically, such large-scale LTH sell-offs tend to occur near key market transitions—either during late-stage rallies or deep consolidation phases where capital begins rotating back into circulation. The timing of this distribution is particularly notable, coming just as Bitcoin consolidates around the $112,000–$113,000 range and the market braces for the US Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. While selling from long-term holders can initially pressure prices, it often sets the foundation for new market entrants to accumulate at more favorable levels. Once this supply redistributes and selling momentum fades, the market can stabilize and form a stronger base for the next upward move. Maartunn’s analysis suggests that this could be part of a healthy market rotation, not necessarily the start of a broader downtrend. If Bitcoin manages to hold above its 200-day moving average and liquidity remains resilient, the recent LTH distribution may ultimately serve as a reset phase—transferring supply from experienced holders to new investors ahead of a renewed bullish impulse. Looking ahead, the key to Bitcoin’s next major move will likely depend on macro conditions—specifically, the Fed’s tone on interest rates and liquidity management. A dovish or neutral stance could reignite demand and absorb the excess supply, while a more hawkish message may extend consolidation. Either way, this phase appears to be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next decisive trend. Bitcoin Faces Rejection As Bulls Defend Key Support Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $113,130, showing mild weakness after failing to break above the $117,500 resistance, a critical supply zone that has rejected price advances multiple times this month. The 4-hour chart highlights a clear rejection near this level, followed by a short-term pullback that has brought BTC back toward its 50-period moving average (blue), currently acting as intraday support. Below current levels, the 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) moving averages sit between $111,000–$112,000, forming a solid confluence of dynamic support. As long as Bitcoin holds above this zone, the broader structure remains constructive, suggesting this pullback could be a retest before another breakout attempt. A confirmed break above $117,500 would invalidate the short-term bearish setup and potentially trigger a move toward $120,000–$123,000, where the next resistance cluster lies. However, if BTC closes below $111,500, it could invite deeper corrections toward $108,000, which served as a strong reaction zone earlier this month. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
