As global markets enter a tense, data-heavy week, traders across both traditional finance and digital assets are bracing for heightened volatility. A wave of critical U.S. economic releases, paired with rapidly shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy, is shaping what could be one of the most pivotal moments for crypto heading into the year-end. Inflation and Jobs Data Set the Tone for a Volatile Week This week’s U.S. macro calendar is unusually crowded. Investors are watching the Producer Price Index (PPI) set for release on November 25, followed by jobless claims and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index on November 26, the Fed’s most trusted inflation gauge. Rising PPI numbers often signal future consumer price pressure, while jobless claims reveal the underlying strength of the labor market. Strong labor data typically argues against aggressive rate cuts, whereas elevated claims reinforce expectations for Fed easing. With U.S. markets closed on November 27 and trading shortened on November 28, Bitcoin and other digital assets face a two-day window where low volume could magnify even modest price swings. Analysts warn that crypto’s historical sensitivity to macro shifts makes this week’s data especially consequential. Dovish Rate Expectations Revive Hopes of a Crypto Rebound Just days ago, the odds of a December rate cut hovered near 30%. Now, futures markets have flipped sharply, pricing a roughly 70% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. Remarks from New York Fed President John Williams hinting at room for further policy “adjustment” added fuel to the shift. This dovish repositioning follows Bitcoin’s dramatic drop from its all-time high above $126,000, which triggered widespread liquidations and sparked fears of a deeper downturn. Nonetheless, analysts argue the recent sell-off may have cleared excess leverage, with Swissblock noting a sharp decline in risk-off signals. Many now expect stabilization and a potential grind higher if liquidity improves. Regulatory Decisions Add Another Layer of Uncertainty Beyond the Fed, all eyes are on the SEC as it prepares to issue rulings on multiple crypto ETFs, including those tied to Solana and XRP, decisions that could unlock significant institutional inflows. Meanwhile, regulatory pressure from abroad, such as Korea’s FIU crackdown on major exchanges, is reshaping compliance costs across the industry. With inflation trends, monetary policy shifts, and regulatory decisions converging at once, crypto markets face a defining moment. The next few days may determine whether digital assets recover into December, or face yet another bout of turbulence. Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview
