After a quick dip below the major $69K horizontal support, the $BTC price rose, dipped again, and rebounded from this important level. Can the bulls now drive the price up another $4,600 or so to another higher high and maintain hopes of a trend change, or will the bears prove too strong? One last rally still left in the bulls? Source: TradingView The sideways and slightly upward chopping back and forth continues to be the modus operandi of the $BTC price , and has been for several weeks now. However, when one looks at the bear flag, and how the downtrend line converges with its top, this does appear to be the major obstacle in the path of the Bitcoin bulls . Is there a chance the bulls can still beat the downtrend? Yes, but it may take the dropping of some major good news to pull the $BTC price out of this macro move to the downside. If the price moves up strongly from here, a higher high could well be achieved, but this would bring the price back up to the top of the bear flag, and by then, faltering momentum would likely bring the price down again. If such a move did take place, it would probably be the last attempt before the downtrend line and the top of the bear flag outright rejected the price, with the next big downward leg possibly following soon after. A breakdown still the most likely scenario Source: TradingView The daily chart is not a good look either. The red 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is declining at a roughly 45 degree angle , and if one considers that there has only been one other, very short lived and much shallower decline throughout the bull market, which took place at the very end of the 8-month bull flag in 2024, this sharper decline could be signalling more downside to come. At the bottom of the chart, it can be observed that the RSI indicator line has dropped out of the ascending channel, came back to confirm the breakdown , and is now possibly heading lower. As mentioned earlier, there is the possibility that the $BTC price could still climb back up to the top of the bear flag, but if one looks left in the RSI, the 70.00 level has marked the tops of rallies, so with the overhead resistances also to contend with, this time does not look like being any different. Could RSI signal a major rally? Source: TradingView In the weekly time frame it can be seen that the 200-week SMA generally provides support for the bear market, although in the last bear market the price did fall underneath, and this was for around seven months during one extended period. If the same thing happens again, the levels of either $48,000 or $40,000 are the strongest support lines to which the $BTC price could fall to. That said, an interesting possibility needs to be considered. If one looks back as far as the double top of the last bull market and focuses on the RSI, it can be noted that every time the indicator line broke through a downtrend line, this heralded the beginning of a major rally. Look at the current downtrend line. The indicator line is just poking up above . That being said, this particular downtrend line does have a little fakeout, which none of the previous downtrend lines have. Could it be that this downtrend line is not drawn correctly? All this speculation aside, the breakout of the downtrend line still needs to be apparent at the end of this week. Only then can it become a potential lifeline for the bulls. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
