Summary MARA Holdings faces heightened downside risk as a pure-play, leveraged Bitcoin miner amid confirmed crypto bear market technicals. MARA's lack of successful diversification into AI or HPC, unlike peers WULF and IREN, leaves it more exposed to Bitcoin's price declines. Technical momentum is decisively bearish: MARA trades well below key moving averages, with any rallies likely to meet selling pressure. Historical patterns suggest MARA may remain trapped below major averages for multiple quarters unless it reclaims the 50-week SMA with conviction. MARA Holdings ( MARA ) is caught in the crossfires of Bitcoin’s weekend dip that saw over $2.5 billion in liquidations and cascading sell-offs of Bitcoin-related stocks. Some miners like TeraWulf ( WULF ) and IREN ( IREN ) held up comparatively stronger, initially only seeing a low single-digit drop over the weekend, but have since dropped more this week. MARA vs peers, 1W trend comparison (Seeking Alpha ) This contrast in market reaction between MARA and peers in the above 1W timeframe chart shows how the market is valuing their risk exposure to Bitcoin and other crypto assets. The others mentioned have executed their pivot to HPC and AI, while MARA has leaned more heavily toward equity raises to purchase more Bitcoin besides the one they mine, and has also followed a full hold strategy for the Bitcoin they mine. This is the core narrative divergence. WULF and IREN have successfully rebranded as power and compute firms with contracted AI revenue, while MARA remains seen as a pure-play levered BTC bet, which the market is punishing more during this dip (and will likely punish more if Bitcoin dips further). Every miner has pursued a diversification strategy in one way or the other, either through HPC/AI hosting, through manufacture of in-house hardware like Bitdeer ( BTDR ), or through balance sheet Bitcoin accumulation. In this update, I'll gauge MARA’s still elevated continued risk profile tied to BTC as we move into a proper crypto bear market (as the technical indicators currently show) and any near term relief from its diversification efforts, the timing, and maybe the potential for a short squeeze and snap-back momentum no matter what Bitcoin does. But to properly analyze MARA (especially from a technical analysis standpoint), I think it is important to establish some key facts about Bitcoin’s price movement at the moment. MARA tracking BTC (Seeking Alpha ) The setup for MARA has become highly bearish and unattractive at current BTC prices. And I think Mr. Market is still being a bit optimistic for MARA, as it is mirroring BTC’s exact price movements. Leveraged Bitcoin plays typically fall at a 2x to 3x rate compared to BTC in a market downturn. It is the same way they rise at the same accelerated rate compared to BTC in a market uptrend. I think the mirroring of Bitcoin's decline without the typical high-beta flush is happening because a portion of the market still doubts if the crypto bear market has really turned full blown yet, hoping for a trend reversal under the impression that this could all be a ripple effect from market-wide sell-offs of precious metals. Bitcoin EMA 50, close (TradingView) But Bitcoin's latest dip below $75,000 over the weekend and now breaking the $70,000 psychological support yesterday shifts downside risk higher for MARA. Key technical levels have now been breached. With both the 21-week and 50-week SMAs now flipped into resistance as well as EMA 50, which confirms a full loss of the medium and long cycle trend. Bitcoin lost the EMA 50 near $95,000 on November 12 (as shown in the preceding chart) and has failed to reclaim it on subsequent dips like it did a few times between 2024 and 2025 (note where the price candles touch the blue line on that preceding chart and the bounce off it). As Bitcoin's current price, $66,900, is currently ~30% below this level, the 50-week EMA has flipped into an overhead supply zone. Any relief rally would need to be super strong with ample volume to clear that resistance; else it will be a series of dead cat bounces ahead. MARA 50 day SMA, 200 day SMA (StockAnalysis) The downside pressure for BTC is mirrored in MARA’s own chart. The preceding MARA chart shows that clear transition from distribution into a confirmed downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the stock has been printing lower highs and lower lows since October, with the price dropping to a low of $6.45 yesterday, which is a newly created cycle low. Price sits well below both the 50-day simple average near $10.50–$11.00 and the 200-day average near $14.50–$15.00, with the 50-day already crossing below the 200 day, fully confirming a bearish regime. Both averages are sloping down, having flipped prior support into overhead resistance, and any relief rally into the $10.50–$11.00 zone is likely to meet selling pressure. Volume behavior reinforces this view, with heavy selling during the initial breakdown in November and muted volume on subsequent bounces. Momentum favors continuation lower until MARA can reclaim the 50-day average with conviction. As long as Bitcoin remains weak on the weekly chart, MARA’s downside risk remains very high. Any upside moves without reclaiming the trend should be regarded as short-term bounces, not trend shifts. Spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (Bitbo) While this market cycle began with what was thought would be a different trend this time for Bitcoin due to institutional demand. Many analysts (myself included) thought institutional buying via the spot Bitcoin ETFs would make the structural floor stronger for Bitcoin this time, but as it has turned out, geopolitics and macro events have triggered a broader sell off in safe haven assets, with Gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ) seeing over $10 trillion wiped off its market cap and Silver ( XAGUSD:CUR ) ~35% price drop from its all time high just weeks ago. The liquidity cushion expected to be provided via institutional adoption of Bitcoin hasn't held in the current dash for cash across global markets. MARA is caught in the crosscurrents of all these market forces because it positioned itself as an aggressive full hold and leverage play on Bitcoin. And though MARA has begun a pivot toward power and data center infrastructure, I think the timing is coming a little too late. At this stage, the pivot still relies on letters of intent and partnerships like the one MARA announced with MPLX LP ( MPLX ) back in November. Meanwhile, peers like IREN and WULF have been rerated, and the market is already pricing in annual run rate revenue xx into the valuation. This brings me to the main takeaway for this piece, which is: technical and momentum indicators now point to a multi quarter crypto bear market, which typically lasts around 10 months to 1 year, and MARA will likely be tracking alongside Bitcoin throughout the bear market. The latest Bitcoin drawdown is not driven by a black swan event, like what we saw during COVID when the market rebounded in weeks. Simple technicals have confirmed the bear market. Though there has been a broader market sell-off this week, AI exposure is also under pressure, with IREN and WULF down by double digits yesterday due to AI capex fears and weakness in the latest JOLTS report released yesterday. But I believe peers like IREN and WULF, with a cleaner pivot and contracted revenue, will not be tracking directly alongside Bitcoin and MARA during the bear market. While past market trends do not always repeat identically in the current cycle, some historical context is worth it here for MARA as added confirmation of a Bitcoin bear market and what investors might want to watch for based on simple technicals. MARA,.SMA 50 weekly (TradingView ) Just like in the current setup, MARA lost the 50-week SMA in late 2018, in the 2018 bear market, and stayed below it for over a year (about 14 months) until around mid 2020 when rallies began attempting to reclaim it. Again, in the 2021 - 2022 bear market, MARA lost the 50 week SMA around March 2022, and spent over a year below the 50 week SMA, with multiple failed weekly attempts to reclaim it and spent over a year below it again, confirming the extended bear market, until reclaiming it in mid 2023. In both 2018 and 2022 bear markets, the true bottom for MARA wasn't confirmed until MARA first touched the 50 week SMA and closed two consecutive weeks above it with expanding volume. Without that conviction, every bounce was simply a distribution. A ~30% drawdown from key technical levels is a far step away from real support. In the current setup, MARA remains trapped well below major weekly averages, and any short-term bounces are likely to be sold into. This keeps the risk skewed to the downside until MARA convincingly breaks back above these levels.
